Bitcoin futures (BTC) worried analysts on July 10, as volume data suggested serious weaknesses and the potential for a major setback.
When uploading a weekly chart of CME Group’s Bitcoin futures to Twitter, Cointelegraph Markets analyst filbfilb did not regret his words describing the current climate.
Filbfilb: BTC futures are „almost identical“ to March
„It looks bad,“ he summarized, noting that a volume indicator had returned to a setting identical to the week before Bitcoin collapsed to $3,600 in March.
„Positioning is almost identical to the big drop last time and a clear downward triangle full of fuses at the resistance, operating below (checkpoint)“.
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Specifically, both retail and institutional traders‘ commitments (TOC) had been maneuvered in exactly the same place they were just a few days before the collapse. TOC is updated on Fridays using data from the previous Tuesday; as such, the metrics provide a snapshot of the status quo several days earlier.
„I doubt much has changed,“ filbfilb told Cointelegraph in private comments.
CME Bitcoin futures chart with March similarities highlighted
Bitcoin futures chart of CME with March similarities highlighted Source: filbfilb/ Twitter
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The Bitcoin price has seen mixed action this week, as the stock markets dictated moves toward USD 9,500. A fall on Thursday night brought the BTC/USD to 9,000 support.
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When asked if traders should expect an exact repeat of March, filbfilb was more optimistic.
„I don’t think there will be a sale like last time,“ he wrote.
„However; the positioning of the big players started 8.5-10.5k last time and that was before the weather got disturbed: these guys are having short positions here on technical aspects rather than external risk (in my opinion)“.
For the CEO of Crypto Digital Group, the price of bitcoin could be close to a major downward movement
Bitcoin derivatives have provoked different narratives in recent weeks. In late June, a $1 billion open interest maturity event initially fueled speculation of a price drop, but ultimately had no discernible impact on the market.
Other fundamentals of the Bitcoin Rush network remain strong, with a hash rate that peaked on average this week and the difficulty set for a 9% upward adjustment in two days.